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Dota 2 statistician makes compendium predictions ahead of TI9

Leamare is a Dota 2 fan specialising in statistical analysis of the game. Ahead of The International 2019, he shares his compendium predictions with a little help from some stats and other experts' Battle Pass Predictions.

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Heroes

Hero-predictions-1

Most picked Hero

My choice: Earthshaker

Alternatives: Grimstroke, Sand King, Spirit Breaker

The most picked hero is usually the one who provides a lot of utility and usually it’s going to be a position 4 support. A lot of players tend to pick Grimstroke as one of the most picked supports of the season, however the hero’s popularity and win rate dropped significantly over the past months. Earthshaker, on the other hand, seems like a solid pick right now and is usually contested a lot during TI-level competitions. Another safe bet would be Sand King as a functionally similar hero, or Spirit Breaker.

Most Banned Hero

My choice: Chen

Alternatives: Io, Spirit Breaker

Chen right now is the Io of previous TIs. While Io itself is still a terrifying hero in competitive Dota, the hero was nerfed a lot during the past months while Chen was reworked and seems to be a new hero to complete the niche of Io. While Io may seem like a safe bet, I don’t see the hero as the most banned one, while Chen is statistically the best candidate for this category.

Hero with highest Win Rate

My choice: Warlock

Alternatives: Broodmother, Arc Warden, Visage

The best hero for this category is usually some kind of cheesy pick. However, the most important part about is the hero should be picked at least five times. While all the alternative picks seem like they may be picked up at least once, I’m not entirely sure they will be picked at least five times and win enough. Another strategy for this category is to just pick a solid hero who is most likely to win most of the games, but is not going to be picked as much. Warlock seems like a good pick for that, but, of course, it’s not ideal and it’s hard to predict who’s going to be the best in this regard.

Hero with highest Kill avg

My choice: Morphling

Alternatives: Clinkz, Templar Assassin, Storm Spirit, Ursa

Morphling is statistically the best hero for this category and is most likely to be picked a lot. Other commonly picked heroes for this category are the type of hero-killers you might expect to see, however those heroes may struggle to get picked a lot in competitive scenario during TI.

Hero with highest Assist avg

My choice: Zeus

Alternatives: Spirit Breaker, Spectre

The reasoning behind Zeus is pretty similar to Kill average. Zeus was pretty commonly picked as midlane core and soft support during past months, so it won’t be surprising for the hero to be picked enough and get all those juicy assists. However, Spirit Breaker seems pretty good for this category as the hero is even more popular right now and forces the map to be a blood bath.

Slark-Header1080

Hero with lowest Death avg

My choice: Slark

Alternatives: Broodmother, Anti-Mage, Morphling, Arc Warden, Naga Siren

While Broodmother is statistically the best hero for this category, the hero may not be picked as much. While Morphling or Arc Warden may seem like a good choices here, I’d place my bet on Slark.

Hero with highest Last Hit avg

My choice: Sven

Alternatives: Medusa, Anti-Mage, Arc Warden, Naga Siren

Traditionally there are Medusa, Anti-Mage or Naga Siren who are usually good picks for these, as well as Arc Warden. However, the best hero for this category is the one who not only tends to farm a lot, but also will be picked decent number of times and get higher chance for a longer games. Sven seems to be a safer bet, considering he’s one of the best safelane cores in the meta, while Medusa, Anti-Mage and Arc Warden are more of a niche heroes. Naga Siren is another good choice for this category in that regard.

Hero with highest XPM avg

My choice: Sven

Alternatives: Meepo, Templar Assassin, Naga Siren

Heroes in XPM category tend to face the same problem. While Meepo is obvious choice for this, the hero may not get picked five times. Statistically the second best hero for this category is Sven.

Hero with most Kills in a game

My choice: Morphling

Alternatives: Ursa, Storm Spirit, Outworld Devourer, Zeus

Since this is not about the average value anymore, things get a bit trickier: there are a lot more possible choices to look for. I’ve gone for a Morphling as a safe bet since the hero is most likely to get picked and get the record and he’s got the most recent kills records in competitive matches.

Hero with most Last Hits in a game

My choice: Anti-Mage

Alternatives: Naga Siren, Arc Warden, Sven

Ah, the occasional Anti-Mage pick that traditionally gets a lot of last hits. This category tends to be a bit random since it mostly falls down to getting picked in the longest game of the tournament. However, it’s most likely to be Anti-Mage, Naga Siren or Sven.

Team predictions

Team-predictions

Most of the teams and choices listed below are based purely on stats, my choices being based on the first place and alternatives being based on the second and the third. However, there will be some additional explanations for specific categories.

Winner of The International 2019

My choice: Vici Gaming

Alternatives: Team Secret

I picked winning team mostly based on various rankings. Vici Gaming and Team Secret are the two titans who are statistically stronger than others and are most likely to win. It’s also a “home tournament” for VG, which makes it seem even more likely for them to win.

Screen-Shot-2019-08-08-at-16.46.52-1

Team with most Kills in a game

My choice: Team Secret

Alternatives: Team Liquid

Team with highest Kill avg

My choice: Team Secret

Alternatives: TNC Predator

Team with fewest Deaths in a game

My choice: Vici Gaming

Alternatives: Team Secret

Team with most Assists in a game

My choice: Evil Geniuses

Alternatives: OG, Team Secret, Team Liquid

While OG and Team Secret are statistically good teams in terms of assists, Evil Geniuses tend to get a lot of assist records during their performances. While the safest bet is probably OG, I’d still place my bet on EG.

Team that wins the Longest game

My choice: Team Secret

Alternatives: OG, Alliance

Team that wins the Shortest game

My choice: Chaos Esports Club

Alternatives: Team Liquid, Virtus.pro, Vici Gaming

A good pick for this category is most likely to be either experienced team or a team that’s most likely to get a “stompy” pick. Chaos seems like a good choice on both of the sides since the team has MATUMBAMAN, an experienced competitive player who is also playing this exact kind of heroes that are good for destroying opponents. Another team that seems good for this is Team Liquid.

Team with highest Game Length avg

My choice: Team Secret

Alternatives: OG

Team that picks the Most different heroes

My choice: Team Secret

Alternatives: Virtus.pro

Team that picks the Fewest different heroes

My choice: Natus Vincere

Alternatives: Newbee, Infamous

Teams picked for this category are usually the ones who are most likely to get to play off, but will be eliminated relatively early. The best picks are usually some of the weakest teams and Natus Vincere doesn’t even have a good hero diversity based on the matches of the team.

Player predictions

Player-Predictions

Player with highest Kill avg

My choice: Miracle-

Alternatives: Nisha, SumaiL, RAMZeS666

Player with most Kills in a game

My choice: Nisha

Alternatives: Miracle-, SumaiL

Player with lowest Death avg

My choice: Nisha

Alternatives: Miracle-, Paparazi

Player with highest Assist avg

My choice: Cr1t-

Alternatives: YapzOr, zai, Fade

Player with most Assists in a game

My choice: YapzOr

Alternatives: Cr1t-

Cr1t- and YapzOr are two players who are most likely to get all the assist records for them and their teams since they usually are far ahead of everybody else in this category. However, it’s hard to choose between two of them. Usually Team Secret has the longest games at TI and the team most of the time has the biggest average match duration. Because of this YapzOr may be a bit better choice.

Screen-Shot-2019-08-08-at-16.46.09-2

Player with highest Last Hits avg

My choice: RAMZES666

Alternatives: Nisha, Arteezy

Player with most Last Hits in a game

My choice: Nisha

Alternatives: Arteezy, Miracle-, RAMZeS666

Player with most GPM in a game

My choice: Nisha

Alternatives: SumaiL, Miracle-, Maybe, Abed

Player with highest GPM avg

My choice: Nisha

Alternatives: SumaiL, Paparazi

While Last hits records are usually straight forward, average GPM and the highest GPM record will most likely to be achieved by midlane players. The reason behind that is the recent popularity of Alchemist, which may scew stats a bit and make midlane players stand out in terms of GPM.

Player that plays the Most different heroes

My choice: zai

This is the man, who has no competition on TI9 in terms of hero diversity and hero pool. Team Secret is also most likely to play a lot of matches at TI, giving a lot of opportunities for zai to play new heroes.

Tournament predictions

Tournament-predictions

And the last piece of predictions is tournament ones. While highest GPM record is obvious because of Alchemist popularity, all the other predictions are mostly based on experience of previous years of compendium predictions and similarity of data of previous year competitions, pre-TI stats and records.

Total number of Games Played in the Main Event: 50 to 54
Total number of heroes Picked: 101+
Total number of heroes Banned: 91 to 100
Most Combined Total Kills in a game: 101 to 110
Longest game of the tournament: 80:00 to 89:59
Shortest game of the tournament: 15:00 to 19:59
Most Kills by a hero in a game: 23 to 25
Most Deaths by a hero in a game: 18 to 20
Most Assists by a hero in a game: 36+
Highest GPM by a hero in a game: 1000+

Discover more Dota 2 analysis from Leamare and visit his website at Spectral.gg

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