Leamare is a Dota 2 fan specialising in statistical analysis of the game. Ahead of The International 2019, he shares his compendium predictions with a little help from some stats and other experts' Battle Pass Predictions.
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Heroes
Most picked Hero
My choice: Earthshaker
Alternatives: Grimstroke, Sand King, Spirit Breaker
The most picked hero is usually the one who provides a lot of utility and usually it’s going to be a position 4 support. A lot of players tend to pick Grimstroke as one of the most picked supports of the season, however the hero’s popularity and win rate dropped significantly over the past months. Earthshaker, on the other hand, seems like a solid pick right now and is usually contested a lot during TI-level competitions. Another safe bet would be Sand King as a functionally similar hero, or Spirit Breaker.
Most Banned Hero
My choice: Chen
Alternatives: Io, Spirit Breaker
Chen right now is the Io of previous TIs. While Io itself is still a terrifying hero in competitive Dota, the hero was nerfed a lot during the past months while Chen was reworked and seems to be a new hero to complete the niche of Io. While Io may seem like a safe bet, I don’t see the hero as the most banned one, while Chen is statistically the best candidate for this category.
Hero with highest Win Rate
My choice: Warlock
Alternatives: Broodmother, Arc Warden, Visage
The best hero for this category is usually some kind of cheesy pick. However, the most important part about is the hero should be picked at least five times. While all the alternative picks seem like they may be picked up at least once, I’m not entirely sure they will be picked at least five times and win enough. Another strategy for this category is to just pick a solid hero who is most likely to win most of the games, but is not going to be picked as much. Warlock seems like a good pick for that, but, of course, it’s not ideal and it’s hard to predict who’s going to be the best in this regard.
Hero with highest Kill avg
My choice: Morphling
Alternatives: Clinkz, Templar Assassin, Storm Spirit, Ursa
Morphling is statistically the best hero for this category and is most likely to be picked a lot. Other commonly picked heroes for this category are the type of hero-killers you might expect to see, however those heroes may struggle to get picked a lot in competitive scenario during TI.
Hero with highest Assist avg
My choice: Zeus
Alternatives: Spirit Breaker, Spectre
The reasoning behind Zeus is pretty similar to Kill average. Zeus was pretty commonly picked as midlane core and soft support during past months, so it won’t be surprising for the hero to be picked enough and get all those juicy assists. However, Spirit Breaker seems pretty good for this category as the hero is even more popular right now and forces the map to be a blood bath.
Hero with lowest Death avg
My choice: Slark
Alternatives: Broodmother, Anti-Mage, Morphling, Arc Warden, Naga Siren
While Broodmother is statistically the best hero for this category, the hero may not be picked as much. While Morphling or Arc Warden may seem like a good choices here, I’d place my bet on Slark.
Hero with highest Last Hit avg
My choice: Sven
Alternatives: Medusa, Anti-Mage, Arc Warden, Naga Siren
Traditionally there are Medusa, Anti-Mage or Naga Siren who are usually good picks for these, as well as Arc Warden. However, the best hero for this category is the one who not only tends to farm a lot, but also will be picked decent number of times and get higher chance for a longer games. Sven seems to be a safer bet, considering he’s one of the best safelane cores in the meta, while Medusa, Anti-Mage and Arc Warden are more of a niche heroes. Naga Siren is another good choice for this category in that regard.
Hero with highest XPM avg
My choice: Sven
Alternatives: Meepo, Templar Assassin, Naga Siren
Heroes in XPM category tend to face the same problem. While Meepo is obvious choice for this, the hero may not get picked five times. Statistically the second best hero for this category is Sven.
Hero with most Kills in a game
My choice: Morphling
Alternatives: Ursa, Storm Spirit, Outworld Devourer, Zeus
Since this is not about the average value anymore, things get a bit trickier: there are a lot more possible choices to look for. I’ve gone for a Morphling as a safe bet since the hero is most likely to get picked and get the record and he’s got the most recent kills records in competitive matches.
Hero with most Last Hits in a game
My choice: Anti-Mage
Alternatives: Naga Siren, Arc Warden, Sven
Ah, the occasional Anti-Mage pick that traditionally gets a lot of last hits. This category tends to be a bit random since it mostly falls down to getting picked in the longest game of the tournament. However, it’s most likely to be Anti-Mage, Naga Siren or Sven.
Team predictions
Most of the teams and choices listed below are based purely on stats, my choices being based on the first place and alternatives being based on the second and the third. However, there will be some additional explanations for specific categories.
Winner of The International 2019
My choice: Vici Gaming
Alternatives: Team Secret
I picked winning team mostly based on various rankings. Vici Gaming and Team Secret are the two titans who are statistically stronger than others and are most likely to win. It’s also a “home tournament” for VG, which makes it seem even more likely for them to win.
Team with most Kills in a game
My choice: Team Secret
Alternatives: Team Liquid
Team with highest Kill avg
My choice: Team Secret
Alternatives: TNC Predator
Team with fewest Deaths in a game
My choice: Vici Gaming
Alternatives: Team Secret
Team with most Assists in a game
My choice: Evil Geniuses
Alternatives: OG, Team Secret, Team Liquid
While OG and Team Secret are statistically good teams in terms of assists, Evil Geniuses tend to get a lot of assist records during their performances. While the safest bet is probably OG, I’d still place my bet on EG.
Team that wins the Longest game
My choice: Team Secret
Alternatives: OG, Alliance
Team that wins the Shortest game
My choice: Chaos Esports Club
Alternatives: Team Liquid, Virtus.pro, Vici Gaming
A good pick for this category is most likely to be either experienced team or a team that’s most likely to get a “stompy” pick. Chaos seems like a good choice on both of the sides since the team has MATUMBAMAN, an experienced competitive player who is also playing this exact kind of heroes that are good for destroying opponents. Another team that seems good for this is Team Liquid.
Team with highest Game Length avg
My choice: Team Secret
Alternatives: OG
Team that picks the Most different heroes
My choice: Team Secret
Alternatives: Virtus.pro
Team that picks the Fewest different heroes
My choice: Natus Vincere
Alternatives: Newbee, Infamous
Teams picked for this category are usually the ones who are most likely to get to play off, but will be eliminated relatively early. The best picks are usually some of the weakest teams and Natus Vincere doesn’t even have a good hero diversity based on the matches of the team.
Player predictions
Player with highest Kill avg
My choice: Miracle-
Alternatives: Nisha, SumaiL, RAMZeS666
Player with most Kills in a game
My choice: Nisha
Alternatives: Miracle-, SumaiL
Player with lowest Death avg
My choice: Nisha
Alternatives: Miracle-, Paparazi
Player with highest Assist avg
My choice: Cr1t-
Alternatives: YapzOr, zai, Fade
Player with most Assists in a game
My choice: YapzOr
Alternatives: Cr1t-
Cr1t- and YapzOr are two players who are most likely to get all the assist records for them and their teams since they usually are far ahead of everybody else in this category. However, it’s hard to choose between two of them. Usually Team Secret has the longest games at TI and the team most of the time has the biggest average match duration. Because of this YapzOr may be a bit better choice.
Player with highest Last Hits avg
My choice: RAMZES666
Alternatives: Nisha, Arteezy
Player with most Last Hits in a game
My choice: Nisha
Alternatives: Arteezy, Miracle-, RAMZeS666
Player with most GPM in a game
My choice: Nisha
Alternatives: SumaiL, Miracle-, Maybe, Abed
Player with highest GPM avg
My choice: Nisha
Alternatives: SumaiL, Paparazi
While Last hits records are usually straight forward, average GPM and the highest GPM record will most likely to be achieved by midlane players. The reason behind that is the recent popularity of Alchemist, which may scew stats a bit and make midlane players stand out in terms of GPM.
Player that plays the Most different heroes
My choice: zai
This is the man, who has no competition on TI9 in terms of hero diversity and hero pool. Team Secret is also most likely to play a lot of matches at TI, giving a lot of opportunities for zai to play new heroes.
Tournament predictions
And the last piece of predictions is tournament ones. While highest GPM record is obvious because of Alchemist popularity, all the other predictions are mostly based on experience of previous years of compendium predictions and similarity of data of previous year competitions, pre-TI stats and records.
Total number of Games Played in the Main Event: 50 to 54
Total number of heroes Picked: 101+
Total number of heroes Banned: 91 to 100
Most Combined Total Kills in a game: 101 to 110
Longest game of the tournament: 80:00 to 89:59
Shortest game of the tournament: 15:00 to 19:59
Most Kills by a hero in a game: 23 to 25
Most Deaths by a hero in a game: 18 to 20
Most Assists by a hero in a game: 36+
Highest GPM by a hero in a game: 1000+
Discover more Dota 2 analysis from Leamare and visit his website at Spectral.gg
